How Will Rising Bond Yields Impact Your Investments?

How Will Rising Bond Yields Impact Your Investments?

Recently, soaring bond yields have triggered fears in capital markets around the world. But are soaring bond yields really bad for the economy? Well, let’s find out.

Crux of the Matter

Relationship Between Bonds And Yields?
Rising bond yields have sparked fears in the equity markets globally mainly because bond prices and yields are inversely related.

In Case Of Fall
When interest rates rise the value of the bond will fall and the value of investments related to the interest falls. But bonds that have already been issued continue to pay the coupon amounts, thus becoming attractive and are sold at a premium.

In Case Of Rise
When interest rates rise, new bonds will pay higher than existing bonds making the price of older bonds fall for compensating, and are thus sold at discount. Also, future earnings of companies get discounted at a higher rate due to which present value of earnings falls and which is why equities fall.

How Does Bond Yield Affect Government’s Borrowing Programme?

  • When the bond yields rise, RBI has to offer higher cut-off price or yields to investors. 
  • Recently the yields on a single day rose by 10 bps (0.01%) as RBI rejected bids because traders demanded higher yields. 
  • RBI has a tough task ahead to stabilise yields at around 6% as government plans to borrow nearly ₹12 lakh crores in the upcoming fiscal.
  • So far, in FY 21 RBI has bought ₹3 lakh crores worth of bonds. 
  • But as government borrowing costs are used as a benchmark for pricing loans to businesses and consumers, an increase in yields will be passed on to the real economy. 
  • As the inflation and economy will rise, investors will move to safer investments, making bonds attractive and will dump equities. 
  • Fifteenth Finance Commission has proposed to bring down the Debt-to-GDP from 89.8% in FY21 to 85.6% in FY26. 

Bad Signals From The US

  • As the Biden administration passed its $1.9 trillion package, yields are ought to rise. This will be bad news for India since it will decrease the FPI inflow. 
  • As the US yields rise further and go near 2%, FPIs will pull out their money from emerging markets across the globe. 
  • In the coming months, Fed is expected to increase the interest rates which will eventually increase the yields. 

Final Thoughts
Rising yields in India and around the world will not necessarily be bad. A small term correction is inevitable but looking at the growth prospects of India, markets are ought to grow in the long run.

As per a report by Morgan Stanley:

  • In the past 20 years, there have been 4 major rising yield cycles and each of them has been positively correlated to equities
  • For equities, the gap between long yields and estimated real growth matters. If this gap rises, equities generally do well. 

Summachar brings you this story in collaboration with Finmedium that can be found on Instagram at @finmedium and on the web here.

Curiopedia
  • Norway’s Government Pension Fund is the world’s largest Sovereign Wealth Fund. It is funded by Oil and Gas and has assets worth $ 1.1 trillion.
  • A credit rating is an evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor, predicting their ability to pay back the debt, and an implicit forecast of the likelihood of the debtor defaulting. A credit score is a subset of credit rating – it is a numeric evaluation of an individual’s credit worthiness, which is done by a credit bureau.
  • The Big Three credit rating agencies are S&P Global Ratings (S&P), Moody’s, and Fitch Group. As of 2013, they hold a collective global market share of “roughly 95 per cent” with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s has approximately 40% each, and Fitch around 15%.

Trivia Thursday: Quirky Things About Bitcoin

Trivia Thursday: Quirky Things About Bitcoin

Did you know that Bitcoin mining consumes more power than it is used to power the whole of Argentina? Well, with Bitcoin breaching the $51,000 mark, and cryptocurrencies like DogeCoin soaring at all-time highs, in this week’s Trivia Thursday, let’s have a look at some interesting trivia like that around the “King of Cryptos” Bitcoin.

Crux of the Matter

In this week’s Trivia Thursday, let us have a look at quirky things about Bitcoin.

Let’ start by taking a look at the market cap of Bitcoin in comparison with a Nation’s GDP and companies:

Power Consumption
Mining for cryptocurrency is a power-hungry affair, involving heavy computer calculations to verify transactions. Cambridge researchers say it consumes around 121.36 Terawatt-hour (TWh) a year. And is unlikely to fall unless the value of the currency slumps. 

Bitcoin is now among the world’s top 30 energy users. It consumes more energy than used to power whole of Argentina.

Lost Bitcoins
Research shows that at least 60% of all Bitcoin addresses are ghosts, which means a huge chunk of the people using Bitcoins have lost their addresses and have no way to access their wallets. 

Stefan Thomas, a German-born programmer living in San Francisco, has 2 guesses left to figure out a password that is worth, as of this week, about $220 million. And this is one of many such cases.

National Currency

  • Liberland, officially the Free Republic of Liberland, is a micronation claiming an uninhabited parcel of disputed land on the western bank of the Danube, between Croatia and Serbia. 
  • It was proclaimed on 13 April 2015 by Czech right-libertarian politician and activist Vít Jedlička. The official currency of Liberland is Bitcoin.
  • The govt believes that blockchain provides a secure and transparent method for recording electronic, financial, and physical assets.

Unit Of Bitcoin
As a sign of respect for Bitcoin’s creator(s), the smallest unit of a bitcoin is known as a satoshi. The satoshi to bitcoin ratio is 100 million satoshis to one bitcoin.

Take a look at our last week’s Trivia Thursday here: Iconic Super Bowl Advertisements.

Buffett Partnership: The Story Before Berkshire Hathaway

Buffett Partnership: The Story Before Berkshire Hathaway

Regarded as the investment guru, Warren Buffett once said Berkshire Hathaway was “one of his worst investments.” Don’t agree, right? He invested in the company in the early days of his long investment journey. In this story, we’ll have a look at the initial phase of Buffett’s investment journey and see if we too can get some inspiration for risk taking.

Crux of the Matter

A Timeline Of Buffett Partnership

1956

  • 25 year old Warren Buffett started Buffett Partnership Ltd. with 7 partners with capital of $105,000 of which $100 was his own.
  • His partners were: his mother, sister aunt, father-in-law-brother-in-law, college roommate, lawyer.
  • He charged no management fee, took 25% of gains beyond a cumulative 6%, and even absorbed all losses.

1962

  • With all partnerships consolidated into Buffett Partnerships Ltd, operations are moved to Kiewit Plaza, an office where they are located to this day!
  • Minimum investment is raised from $25,000 to $100,000.
  • Warren Buffett discovered and started buying stock of a Textile manufacturing company Berkshire Hathaway (BH) that was trading at $8.
  • Buffett once said BH was the dumbest stock he ever bought!

1963

  • Buffett sold Dempster, a windmill manufacturing company bought in 1962 for 200% profit.
  • Buffett Partnerships became the largest shareholder at Berkshire Hathaway.
  • Due to a fraud, American Express’ shares fell to $35, which Buffett bought while the world was selling.

1965

  • Buffett picked up 5% stake in Walt Disney for $4 million.
  • American Express traded at double the price from what Warren had bought.
  • Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway in board meeting, naming Ken Chace company’s President.
  • Warren’s personal net worth reached close to $7 million.

1967

  • Buffett Partnership was worth $65 million when Buffett wrote to his partners that he found no bargains in markets of 60s.
  • American Express was at $180/share – a $20 million profit on investment worth $13 million.
  • Berkshire Hathaway took over National Indemnity insurance for $8.6 million.
  • In 1968, Buffett Partnership earned more than $40 million in a year with total value at $104 million.

Liquidating Buffett Partnership
Buffett liquidated the assets of the partnership and in return gave shares of BH to his partners. Warren’s stake was valued at $25 million.

“I would continue to operate the Partnership in 1970, or even 1971, if I had some really first class ideas. I just don’t see anything available that gives any reasonable hope of delivering a good year and I have no desire to grope around, hoping to “get lucky” with other people’s money. I am not attuned to this market environment and I don’t want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don’t understand just so I can go out a hero.”

 Warren Buffett in a May 1969 letter

  • Buffett earned an annual return of 31.5% in comparison to Dow Jones’ 9.1%.
  • His goal was to outperform in bear markets and average performance in bull markets.
  • He favored a conservative approach, avoiding permanent capital loss.

“I make no attempt to forecast the general market — my efforts are devoted to finding undervalued securities.”

Warren Buffett

Want to know the key ingredient of Warren Buffett’s success? Click here to read about it in detail.

Summachar brings you this story in collaboration with Finmedium that can be found on Instagram at @finmedium and on the web here.

Curiopedia
  • Benjamin Graham was a British-born American economist, professor and investor. He is widely known as the “father of value investing”, and wrote two of the founding texts in neoclassical investing: Security Analysis (1934)  and The Intelligent Investor (1949).
  • In 1988, Buffett began buying The Coca-Cola Company stock, eventually purchasing up to 7% of the company for $1.02 billion. It would turn out to be one of Berkshire’s most lucrative investments, and one which it still holds.
  • In August 2014, the price of Berkshire Hathaway’s shares hit $200,000 a share for the first time, capitalizing the company at $328 billion. While Buffett had given away much of his stock to charities by this time, he still held 321,000 shares worth $64.2 billion.

Trivia Thursday: Iconic Super Bowl Advertisements

Trivia Thursday: Iconic Super Bowl Advertisements

Known as the Mecca of advertisements, the Super Bowl ad spot is one of the most expensive ad spots. In this week’s Trivia Thursday, let’s take a look at some Super Bowl ad campaigns which popularised the brands and gave us some revolutionary ads at the same time.

Crux of the Matter

In this week’s Trivia Thursday, let us have a look at Super Bowl advertisement campaigns.

Super Bowl Ads
The prominence of airing a commercial during the Super Bowl (SB) has carried an increasingly high price. The average cost of a 30-second commercial in 1967, Super Bowl I was: $37,500 and in 2020, Super Bowl LIV was: $5.6 million.

Xerox At SB XI (1977)
Xerox aired an advertisement entitled “Monks,” starring Jack Eagle as a monk discovering that he could create copies of a manuscript using a new Xerox photocopier.

Y&R New York described it as the “first viral ad“, saying it “was the first commercial that got people to request to see it again on TV.”

Apple At SB XVIII (1984)
1984’ is an American TV commercial introducing the Apple Macintosh PC. Its only national televised airing was on 22 January 1984, during a break in the third quarter of the telecast of Super Bowl XVIII by CBS (a TV network).

The ad was an allusion to George Orwell’s noted 1949 novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four, which described a dystopian future ruled by a televised “Big Brother.”

In 1995, The Clio Awards added it to its Hall of Fame, and Advertising Age placed it on the top of its list of 50 greatest commercials.

Doritos At SB XLIII (2009)
In 2006, Doritos began a promotion called ‘Crash the Super Bowl’, soliciting viewers to film their own Doritos commercials to possibly be aired during the game.

At Super Bowl XLIII in 2009, an additional bonus prize of $1 million was added if any of the winning entries were named #1 on the Super Bowl Ad Meter survey results.

Doritos did reach the #1 spot on the survey that year with an ad entitled “Free Doritos“. It was one of the early user-generated ads to be aired on SuperBowl.

Old Spice At SB XLIV (2010)
‘Smell like a Man, Man’ is a TV ad campaign created by Old Spice. Also the title of the campaign’s initial 30-second commercial, ‘The Man Your Man Could Smell Like’ is an alternate name the ad is known by. 

Because ~60% of men’s products were bought by Women, Old Spice targeted women for the ad of a men’s product.

Interestingly, due to budget constraints, the ad was never advertised on Super bowl, but was released on YouTube during the same time and was able to direct all the internet searches towards itself.

It is considered to be one of the most successful super bowl ads, which never aired on superbowl.

PewDiePie At SB LIII (2019)
In 2019, when the meme ‘subscribe to pewdiepie‘ was at its peak, a famous YouTuber called Mr Beast appeared at the Super Bowl with his friends wearing “Subscribe to PewDiePie” shirts, bringing the internet campaign to a whole new level.

The shirts appeared a couple of times on stream, and even managed to make it into an official ESPN tweet.

Take a look at our last week’s Trivia Thursday here: Private Space Technology

Is IDFC First Bank The New Big Thing?

Is IDFC First Bank The New Big Thing?

IDFC First Bank has been in the light for more than a year now because of its sharp increase in Retail Loan book and Current Accounts and Savings Accounts. It is being touted as the next HDFC bank by analysts. Let’s see how.

Crux of the Matter

About IDFC
IDFC got its banking license in 2015. It was majorly into Infrastructure Financing, Investment Banking, Mutual Funds, Debt Funds before its merger with Capital First.

Before the merger, Capital First was growing its loans and profits at 56% and 29% CAGR respectively. As experts put, the primary motive of IDFC merging with Capital First was to create a Retail Bank and to reduce the Corporate Banking exposure.

Current Outlook
IDFC has been in trouble before because of heavy exposure of its loan book to weak companies like Reliance Capital, DHFL,
Voda Idea, etc.

IDFC First Bank is heavily inclined towards shifting source of funding from wholesale liabilities to retail liabilities and since past two years, it has increased it from ₹10,400 crores to ₹33,924 crores at the end of FY20.

In Numbers

  • 48.4% CASA Ratio (Current Account to Savings Account) increased after a merger to 48.4% in FY21 Q3 from 12.93%. 
  • Retail assets have increased by 40%.
  • 27% decrease in wholesale funded assets.
  • Capital Adequacy Ratio 14.33%.
  • Net interest margins 4.6%.
  • Numbers neck to neck with HDFC Bank.

These numbers are suggestive of the fact that CEO V Vaidyanathan is sticking to his words of making IDFC First a Retail Banking giant.

Summachar brings you this story in collaboration with Finmedium that can be found on Instagram at @finmedium and on the web here.

Curiopedia
  • In March 2020, IDFC First bank announced that it has signed Mr Amitabh Bachchan, as its first brand ambassador. The tagline of the company is “Always You First”.
  • IDFC Bank is the first in India to launch Aadhaar-linked cashless merchant solution. On 8 November 2017, IDFC Bank entered into a strategic partnership with a digital payments solution company
  • Before being the MD and CEO of IDFC First Bank Ltd, V. Vaidyanathan was the MD and CEO of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance and was earlier on the Board of ICICI bank too. Vaidyanathan began his career at Citibank and worked there from 1990 to 2000 in consumer banking.